COMEX Silver Bleeds 9.9 Million Ounces Across Seven Straight Sessions
Copy link
Silver rallied 2.77% to $67.055 on September 18 and then closed the week softer, but the vault data running underneath that price action did not waver for a single session. COMEX silver recorded net outflows on seven consecutive days through September 17, draining 9.9 million ounces — 307 tonnes — and pulling combined inventory down to 330.08 million ounces. The daily prints tell the story without interpretation: -2.11 million on September 9, -588,300 on the 10th, -970,100 on the 11th, -1.95 million on the 14th, -1.08 million on the 15th, -1.71 million on the 16th, and -1.45 million on the 17th. Registered stock now sits at 97.29 million ounces, just 29.5% of the total. Meanwhile the front-month EFP backwardation that opened last week has begun to heal — SEP26 improved from -11.0 cents to -5.5 cents — even as the curve beyond it steepened sharply, with DEC26 widening from 50.0 to 55.0 cents. China’s premium held at +12.78% inside the tight 12-to-13% corridor it has occupied since August. A market draining metal for seven straight sessions while its forward curve steepens is describing a physical market being pulled apart at both ends.
The InProved Terminal’s COMEX Precious Metals Vaults monitor for silver, current to September 17, records a combined total of 330,083,336 troy ounces, down 1,447,912 ounces or 0.44% versus the prior session. Registered stock stands at 97.29 million ounces — 29.5% of total — against eligible of 232.80 million, or 70.5%. The recent daily moves panel is the analytically valuable addition, because it converts a headline into a pattern: 09-17 at -1.45 million, 09-16 at -1.71 million, 09-15 at -1.08 million, 09-14 at -1.95 million, 09-11 at -970,100, 09-10 at -588,300, and 09-09 at -2.11 million. Seven sessions, seven negative prints, no offsetting inflow day. The vault composition chart shows combined stock having peaked near 470 million ounces in early 2026, troughed around 310 million in May and June, recovered through the summer to roughly 340 million, and now turning down again. The net flow panel makes the regime change visible: a dense block of red through the first half of the year, a run of green from June through August, and a fresh cluster of red bars in September.
The significance sits in the registered figure and what it implies for delivery capacity. At 97.29 million ounces against a COMEX contract size of 5,000 ounces, registered stock supports roughly 19,458 contracts of deliverable capacity. In a market where open interest routinely exceeds 120,000 contracts, that is a cover ratio under 17%, and it has been falling for seven consecutive sessions. Last week this analysis flagged the 2.11-million-ounce single-day drop of September 9 as the largest in four months; that print has since been revealed as the opening move of a sustained streak rather than an isolated event. The eligible-to-registered split adds a further wrinkle: at 70.5% eligible, the majority of COMEX silver sits in a category that is warehoused but not pledged against futures, and converting it to registered requires the owner’s consent — which at a 12.78% Shanghai premium they have an obvious alternative use for. The delivery mechanism is not broken, but it is being asked to do more with less, week after week.
The InProved Terminal’s silver EFP dashboard for September 18 records spot at $67.055, up $1.805 or 2.77%, with DEC26 at 67.605, a gold-silver ratio of 65.42, and the curve explicitly flagged as contango, steepening. The spread table reads SPOT-SEP26 at -5.5 cents against a prior of -11.0 cents, SPOT-DEC26 at 55.0 cents against 50.0, SPOT-MAR27 at $1.42 against $1.34, SPOT-MAY27 at $2.03 against $1.94, and SPOT-JUL27 at $2.62 against $2.51. The basis history panel from July 29 shows the SEP26 series crossing below zero in late August and oscillating between roughly -0.2 and 0 since, while the DEC26 series descended from near 1.0 in late July to a trough around 0.5 in early September before turning back up to the current 55 cents.
Two things happened simultaneously and they pull in opposite directions, which is what makes this week’s EFP print more interesting than a simple continuation. The front-month backwardation halved, from -11.0 to -5.5 cents, which says the immediate physical scramble that produced last week’s inversion has partially eased. But every tenor from December outward widened — DEC26 by 5 cents, MAR27 by 8, MAY27 by 9, JUL27 by 11 — which says the market is pricing progressively more compensation for holding metal further out. A curve that heals at the front while steepening in the back is describing a market where the acute near-term squeeze has been relieved, most likely by the very metal leaving COMEX vaults, while the structural expectation of future tightness has strengthened. Read alongside the seven-session outflow streak, the mechanism becomes legible: metal is being pulled out of registered stock to satisfy immediate demand, which relieves the front-month pressure, and the market is charging more for forward delivery precisely because it can see the inventory that would have served those later months walking out the door.
The InProved Terminal’s China Premium Monitor for silver, updated September 18, records the premium at +12.78%, with SGE silver at $75.30 per ounce against an LBMA benchmark of $66.77. The five-day average sits at +12.83% and the thirty-day range runs from +12.02% to +13.10%. The three-month trend panel from June 24 shows the structure with unusual clarity: the series began near 10.5%, dropped sharply to a low around 9.5% in late June, then climbed through July to establish a band between 11.5% and 13%, and has spent all of August and September oscillating inside a tight 12-to-13% corridor with the five-day moving average tracking near 12.8%. The InProved Terminal’s own framing described it as domestic Shanghai pricing tracking smoothly within its recent structural baseline.
The value of this reading is precisely that it is unremarkable, and that constitutes a meaningful change in the analytical picture. For three consecutive weeks this analysis documented a Chinese premium that inverted the normal price-premium relationship — rising to 13.10% on September 4, printing 12.81% after the PPI release, and breaking back above 13.02% on September 11 while the SGE price fell 4.91%. Those were episodes of industrial buyers accelerating procurement into falling prices. This week the premium simply held its range while spot rallied 2.77%, which means the Chinese bid neither chased the rally nor withdrew from it. A premium that stays at 12.78% through a 2.77% price advance is a bid anchored to industrial requirement rather than price expectation, and its stability at that level is what sustains the arbitrage pulling Western metal eastward. The thirty-day floor of +12.02% is the operative number: as long as Chinese buyers pay twelve percent over London, the economics of moving registered COMEX silver to Shanghai remain compelling, and the seven-session outflow streak documented above is the visible consequence.
The InProved Terminal’s Global Silver Vault Monitor for September 15 puts the combined worldwide total at 41,414 tonnes — 1,331.5 million ounces across five exchanges in four regions — which the accompanying post described as mid-range for the year at the 52-week percentile midpoint. The 52-week range runs from a low of 38,373 tonnes on 07 April 2026 to a high of 45,240 tonnes on 02 October 2025. The regional distribution reads LBMA London at 28,431.1 tonnes (68.65%, 914,082,000 ounces), COMEX at 10,459.2 tonnes (25.26%, 336,271,674 ounces), China’s SHFE and SGE at 2,306.5 tonnes (5.57%, 74,157,015 ounces), and India’s MCX at 217.5 tonnes (0.53%, 6,993,451 ounces). The LBMA estimated free float stands at 6,930.6 tonnes — 222.82 million ounces — up 23.0 tonnes or 0.33% versus the prior print, derived from a London total of 28,431.1 tonnes less ETF and vault-programme holdings of 21,500.5 tonnes.
The growth rates attached to those regional figures are where the divergence lives, and they should be read together rather than separately. LBMA holdings are up 15.4% year-on-year. COMEX holdings are down 36.2% year-on-year despite a recent three-month bounce. Shanghai’s SHFE silver stock has surged 67.4% over three months. The picture is of silver migrating decisively from New York toward London and Shanghai, and the seven-session COMEX outflow streak documented above is simply the latest instalment of a year-long reallocation. Two further details deserve attention. First, London’s total rose to 28,431.1 tonnes from the 28,212.7 tonnes that had been unchanged in every print for a month, so London is genuinely gaining metal rather than merely reclassifying it. Second, the free float rose 23.0 tonnes to 6,930.6 — the second consecutive weekly increase after the sustained compression of late August — which means the London squeeze narrative has now clearly paused even as the COMEX drain accelerates. The tightness has not disappeared; it has moved venue, and it now sits squarely in the registered COMEX stock that the delivery mechanism actually depends on.
For bullion dealers, a seven-session outflow streak that has removed 307 tonnes from COMEX is the kind of signal that shows up in wholesale availability before it shows up in price, and dealers should treat it as a lead indicator for lead times rather than for spot. The specific number to internalise is 97.29 million ounces of registered stock, or roughly 19,458 contracts of deliverable capacity — under 17% cover against typical open interest, and falling daily. When that ratio compresses, wholesale allocated silver becomes harder to source and fabrication queues extend, usually with a lag of several weeks. Silver at $67.055 after a 2.77% rally is not cheap relative to the $62 to $68 range this analysis flagged last week, but it remains far below the 52-week high of $116.85 and the acquisition case rests on availability rather than price. Continue building across Silver Eagles, Britannias, one-kilo bars and hundred-ounce bars, and prioritise securing supply commitments over waiting for a better print. A twelve-month spot target of $85 to $95 is unchanged, and the honest customer-facing line is that COMEX silver has left the building for seven sessions running while China keeps paying nearly thirteen percent over London for it.
For conservative investors, this week clarifies where the tightness now lives and that clarification matters for how the thesis should be monitored. The London free float has risen for a second consecutive week to 6,930.6 tonnes, so the squeeze narrative that dominated late August has genuinely paused in London — an honest reading has to say so. But COMEX registered stock has fallen for seven straight sessions to 97.29 million ounces, COMEX total holdings are down 36.2% year-on-year, and the forward EFP curve has steepened at every tenor from December outward. The pressure has relocated from London’s tradeable float to New York’s delivery pool, which is if anything the more consequential of the two because registered stock is what settles contracts. Meanwhile China’s premium has held a 12-to-13% corridor for two months and SHFE stock is up 67.4% over three months, so the eastward pull that drives the reallocation is intact and unhurried. Conservative investors should treat the $63 to $68 range as an accumulation zone and complete allocations here. A twelve-month target of $85 to $95 implies roughly 27% to 42% upside from $67.06. Monitor COMEX registered: a break below 90 million ounces would signal acute delivery stress, while a sustained rebuild above 110 million would indicate the pressure had eased.
For active traders, the divergence between a healing front month and a steepening forward curve is the most tradeable feature of this week’s data. The SEP26 backwardation halving to -5.5 cents removes the immediate gap risk that made outright long positions uncomfortable last week, while DEC26 widening to 55 cents and JUL27 to $2.62 says the market is paying progressively more for forward metal. That combination favours calendar structures over outright direction: long the deferred, short the front, capturing the steepening rather than betting on spot. For traders who prefer directional exposure, the levels are $64.00 support with a deeper shelf at $62.00, resistance at $70.00 then $72.00, and the $75.30 SGE print as the reference for where Chinese physical clears. The gold-silver ratio at 65.42 has compressed from 67.9 a week ago as silver outperformed, and with gold’s own basis collapsing 86% since July the relative-value case is now genuinely two-sided rather than one-way — both metals are tightening, and the ratio trade has less edge than it did a fortnight ago. The single series to watch is the daily COMEX registered print: an eighth, ninth and tenth consecutive negative session would turn a streak into a delivery problem, and that is when the forward curve stops steepening gradually and starts gapping.
Hugo Pascal’s observation about the AU9999 contract hitting a 10-week volume high underscores the increasing significance of physical gold trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This trend not only highlights robust domestic demand in China but also reflects broader shifts in the global gold market toward physical-backed assets.
Latest articles
Tool and strategies modern teams need to help their companies grow.
Invite users to stay updated with exclusive insights and market trends by subscribing to the newsletter.
Start stacking your bullion. Download the InProved app and build your legacy in gold and silver.
+65 8899 3720
support@inproved.com