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Gold’s Momentum Builds: Navigating COMEX April ‘25 Key Levels and Market Signals

Gold’s bullish momentum continues to gain traction, with prices pushing higher and market indicators flashing key signals for traders and investors alike. In his latest analysis, Hugo Pascal, Chief Investment Officer at InProved, highlighted several critical levels shaping the COMEX Gold April 2025 (Apr ’25) contract. Gold is now trading at $2,830/oz, with Pax Gold tokens reflecting a 1% increase, while the LBMA closed at $2,801 on Friday. Meanwhile, derivatives activity on COMEX is signaling heightened market dynamics, with the 68.2% retracement range set between $2,808 and $2,862, a call wall emerging at $2,850, a 25 delta risk reversal skew of 1.8, and the EFP spread standing at $33.2/oz.

Gold’s continued push higher in recent sessions suggests a strong battle between technical resistance and bullish sentiment. The 68.2% Fibonacci retracement level between $2,808 and $2,862 is a crucial zone, often serving as a key inflection point for price movements. With gold trading near the lower end of this range, a decisive break above could signal further upside momentum, potentially challenging the upper boundary of $2,862. This level, coupled with the emerging call wall at $2,850, suggests that options traders have positioned this as a major resistance point, where a concentration of call options could slow further gains unless significant buying pressure forces a breakout.

The 25 delta risk reversal skew at 1.8 further underscores the bullish tilt in sentiment. A positive risk reversal suggests that traders are assigning higher implied volatility to call options over puts, indicating a greater willingness to pay for upside exposure. This aligns with gold’s broader trajectory, where safe-haven demand, geopolitical risks, and ongoing inflation concerns have kept bullish bets alive.

The Exchange for Physical (EFP) spread at $33.2/oz is another critical piece of the puzzle. A high EFP spread typically signals supply constraints or increased demand for physical delivery, reflecting a disconnect between futures and spot markets. The widening spread suggests that traders may be facing difficulties sourcing physical gold, which can lead to higher premiums and drive additional speculative interest in futures contracts. This trend is particularly notable given the growing divergence between paper and physical gold markets, reinforcing the idea that real demand is strengthening beyond just speculative positioning.

Pax Gold tokens, a digital asset backed by physical gold, have also been on the rise, now trading at $2,877/oz, marking a 2.71% gain since Friday’s close. The movement in Pax Gold further confirms strong market interest in gold-backed instruments, mirroring price action in traditional gold markets. While digital gold tokens offer a modern way to gain exposure to the metal, their price movements often reflect underlying physical market trends, adding another layer of validation to gold’s ongoing strength.

As traders and investors navigate these levels, the coming sessions will be pivotal. If gold can break through the call wall at $2,850 and sustain momentum above the 68.2% retracement zone, it could set the stage for a move toward higher resistance levels. However, should gold face rejection at these technical barriers, a period of consolidation may follow before another attempt higher.

The combination of strong physical demand, bullish options sentiment, and widening EFP spreads suggests that gold’s rally is more than just a short-term move. With the market increasingly favoring safe-haven assets in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, gold’s resilience remains a testament to its role as a store of value.

Hugo Pascal’s analysis once again provides a critical lens into the evolving gold market, helping traders decipher the signals that could shape the next leg of gold’s journey. With technical levels aligning with broader market trends, gold continues to prove why it remains at the center of global financial discussions.