Gold’s East–West Divergence: Futures Deleveraging, Shanghai Inventory Highs, and Persistent Premiums
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Gold markets are currently defined by a measurable divergence between Western futures positioning and Asian physical and derivatives activity. On COMEX, open interest has declined sharply to levels last seen over a decade ago, while Shanghai continues to show relative stability in positioning and record-high physical inventories.
As of April 2, 2026, COMEX gold open interest has fallen to 355,050 contracts, representing a notional exposure of approximately 1,104 metric tons. This marks a 25.5% decline year-to-date and the lowest level recorded in nearly 17 years. In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold open interest has declined by only 11.6% over the same period, indicating a slower rate of deleveraging.
The divergence is reflected in the COMEX-to-SHFE open interest ratio, which currently stands at 3.95. While both markets have reduced exposure, the contraction in COMEX has been significantly more pronounced.
At the same time, SHFE gold warehouse stocks have reached a new all-time high of 108.153 metric tons, equivalent to approximately 3.4 million ounces, with a weekly increase of 1.5 tons. Physical pricing in China remains above international benchmarks, with premiums holding at approximately 0.66% or $29.76 per ounce above LBMA.
Despite a broader sell-off in precious metals, gold continues to trade at a premium of approximately 0.4% above LBMA pricing globally. Institutional outlooks remain constructive, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a bullish forecast for gold through the end of 2026. Concurrently, Singapore is evaluating additional gold storage capacity to accommodate central bank demand.
These figures describe a market where Western futures exposure is contracting while Asian demand, inventories, and pricing remain stable.
Gold futures positioning on COMEX has declined significantly. Open interest currently stands at 355,050 contracts, representing approximately 1,104 metric tons of gold exposure.
This level reflects a 25.5% reduction year-to-date and marks the lowest open interest recorded since 2009. The scale of the decline indicates a substantial reduction in leveraged futures participation within the Western market.
The reduction in open interest quantifies a broad deleveraging process, where existing positions are being closed rather than replaced by new exposure.
The contrast between COMEX and SHFE positioning is measurable through relative changes in open interest. While COMEX open interest has declined by 25.5% year-to-date, SHFE open interest has declined by 11.6% over the same period.
The COMEX-to-SHFE open interest ratio currently stands at 3.95. This ratio reflects the relative size of futures exposure between the two markets.
The difference in percentage declines indicates that futures participation in Shanghai has remained more stable compared with the sharper contraction observed on COMEX.
Physical gold inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to increase. Warehouse stocks have reached a new all-time high of 108.153 metric tons, equivalent to approximately 3.4 million ounces.
The latest weekly data shows an increase of 1.5 metric tons. The accumulation of inventory within the SHFE warehouse system indicates that additional gold is being delivered into exchange storage.
Warehouse stocks represent metal available for delivery against futures contracts. Rising inventory levels increase the volume of gold accessible within the exchange settlement system.
Gold pricing in China continues to trade above international benchmarks. The Shanghai Gold Premium is currently approximately 0.66%, equivalent to $29.76 per ounce above LBMA pricing.
The five-day moving average of the premium stands at approximately 0.45% and is trending upward. This indicates that domestic pricing has maintained a positive differential relative to global benchmarks over recent sessions.
Even during broader price consolidation in global markets, the premium has remained positive. Recent data also shows gold trading at approximately 0.4% above LBMA globally.
The persistence of these premiums reflects continued demand within the domestic Chinese market.
Institutional perspectives on gold remain constructive. Goldman Sachs has reiterated its bullish outlook, forecasting renewed gains by the end of 2026 despite recent price declines.
At the same time, infrastructure developments continue to expand. Singapore is considering additional gold storage capacity to accommodate central bank holdings. The expansion of storage facilities indicates increasing demand for physical gold custody within the region.
These developments reflect both forward-looking expectations and current demand for physical storage capacity.
The combination of declining COMEX open interest, stable SHFE positioning, rising Shanghai warehouse stocks, and persistent premiums provides a measurable view of market structure.
Western futures markets are reducing exposure, as shown by the 25.5% decline in COMEX open interest. In contrast, Shanghai’s 11.6% decline indicates a slower rate of positioning reduction. Physical inventories in Shanghai continue to increase, reaching 108.153 tons, while premiums remain positive at approximately 0.66%.
The divergence between futures positioning and physical demand is reflected directly in these figures.
For bullion dealers, the key metrics remain Shanghai warehouse stocks and regional premiums. With SHFE inventories at 108.153 tons and premiums at approximately $29.76 per ounce above LBMA, physical demand in China continues to show measurable strength.
For conservative investors, the reduction in COMEX open interest to 355,050 contracts and the 25.5% year-to-date decline provide a clear indication of reduced leveraged exposure. Monitoring whether open interest stabilizes or continues to decline will indicate the pace of deleveraging.
For traders, the divergence between COMEX and SHFE positioning is central. The current open interest ratio of 3.95 quantifies the difference between the two markets. At the same time, tracking premium levels and warehouse inventory changes will provide additional signals on physical demand conditions.
Across futures positioning, physical inventories, and pricing premiums, the current figures describe a gold market where Western leverage is contracting while Eastern demand and infrastructure continue to expand.
Hugo Pascal’s observation about the AU9999 contract hitting a 10-week volume high underscores the increasing significance of physical gold trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This trend not only highlights robust domestic demand in China but also reflects broader shifts in the global gold market toward physical-backed assets.
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