Silver’s 2026 Shock—Still Up on the Year: What the Numbers Actually Say
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A seven-session collapse of 34% would normally bury any year-to-date gain. Not this time. Even after the slide, silver is +8.2% YTD, placing 2026 as the 17th-best start in the last 64 years—that’s the 73rd percentile for first-26-day performance. For context, the “hall-of-fame” openers were 1974: +40.9%, 1998: +27.5%, 1983: +26.1%, and 1980: +24.8%; 2026 currently sits at +8.17%.
Against that price tape, the plumbing is shifting: London “free float” down 8.9% week-on-week to 200.3 million oz, total London vault silver down 0.3% MoM to 27,729 tonnes, COMEX inventories 394.5 million oz after a −2.75% week, and Registered down to a one-year low of 103.5 million oz (−18.5% YTD). In China, premiums closed at +13.9% (+$10.1/oz) with SHAGPM at $82.6/oz versus LBMA $72.5/oz; the Shanghai Futures Exchange curve is deeply backwardated (Apr’26–Aug’26 −¥1,095/kg (≈−$4.90/oz); Apr’26–Dec’26 −¥1,372/kg (≈−$6.15/oz)), and Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag(t+d) settled $81.55/oz (−11.4%). Combined SHFE+SGE warehouse stocks stand at 887 tonnes (28.5 million oz), with SHFE specifically at 350 tonnes (−23.1% WoW; −62.5 t day-over-day; −105 t WTD). ETF behavior is split: **BlackRock’s iShares Physical Silver ETC (SSLN) holdings −25% YTD to 47.7 million oz, while **iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is −1.2% YTD to 426.4 million oz.
One week, one market, many measurements—here’s how they fit together without overlap.
The dual fact pattern—−34% over seven sessions and +8.2% YTD—isn’t a contradiction; it’s a ranking. The first 26 trading days of 2026 sit in the 73rd percentile for opening-period performance across 64 years, behind 1974 (+40.9%), 1998 (+27.5%), 1983 (+26.1%), and 1980 (+24.8%). The single takeaway: momentum has been strong enough to absorb an historically violent week and still post an above-median start.
Two London series say different things and both matter. “Free float” estimates fell 8.9% WoW to 200.3 million oz (≈6,232 t)—that’s the pool of immediately available, non-encumbered bars used to meet spot and near-date needs. In parallel, silver held in London vaults slipped 0.3% MoM to 27,729 t, a modest top-line change that masks the sharper tightening in the tradable subset. The combination—smaller free float against only slightly lower total stocks—explains why cash immediacy can feel scarce even when headline inventories don’t collapse.
Investor wrappers are not monolithic. SSLN holdings fell 25% YTD to 47.7 million oz, while SLV is down only 1.2% YTD to 426.4 million oz. The gap quantifies allocation differences: one vehicle saw quarter-scale reduction, the other a marginal trim. In a week where price is still +8% YTD, that divergence provides a measurable cross-check on where retail and institutional ounces are being parked.
On the warehouse ledger, COMEX silver inventories declined 2.75% week-to-date (−348 t) to 394.5 million oz, while Registered fell to a one-year low of 103.5 million oz (−18.5% YTD). On the curve, backwardation has been deepening: by Feb 5, the May’26 contract flipped into backwardation, trading $0.001/oz (one-tenth of a cent) below spot. That is a directional, sign-based signal: when a later contract trades under spot, the term structure is incentivizing near-date delivery over deferral at the margin.
On Feb 7, Shanghai PM (SHAGPM) fixed at $82.6/oz, with LBMA at $72.5/oz, closing a +13.9% (+$10.1/oz) premium—an explicit price for immediacy in that venue. The futures side on SHFE is heavily backwardated: Apr’26–Aug’26 −¥1,095/kg (≈−$4.90/oz) and Apr’26–Dec’26 −¥1,372/kg (≈−$6.15/oz). Meanwhile, SGE Ag(t+d) settled $81.55/oz (−11.4%) on Feb 6, delivering the volatility that options models must now absorb.
The combined SHFE + SGE silver stack stands at 887 tonnes (28.5 million oz), but the stress is concentrated on the futures side: SHFE reported ≈350 tonnes, down 23.1% WoW, with a −62.5 t daily draw and −105 t WTD—described as the tightest physical conditions in a decade. One number captures the direction: < 400 t.
At 2:30 p.m. Shanghai time on Feb 7, SHAGPM printed a silver price +13.9% above LBMA—$82.6/oz vs $72.5/oz—a single time-stamped measurement that defines the basis used by procurement desks for landed-cost math and by arbitrage desks for route selection.
Dealing desks should key short-horizon risk to the week’s realized extremes and term signs: model hedge widths using the 34% seven-session drawdown and note that COMEX May’26 flipped into backwardation by $0.001/oz, while SHFE shows deeper structure (Apr’26–Aug’26 −$4.90/oz; Apr’26–Dec’26 −$6.15/oz). Procurement teams should price shipments with the +13.9% China premium (+$10.1/oz) in mind and weigh it against London free-float at 200.3 million oz (−8.9% WoW) and total London stocks 27,729 t (−0.3% MoM)—the former sets immediacy, the latter ensures the system isn’t empty. Inventory managers on futures venues should stress-test delivery plans against COMEX inventory of 394.5 million oz (−2.75% WTD) and Registered 103.5 million oz (−18.5% YTD), while acknowledging SHFE 350 t as the operative tightness figure inside China.
For conservative allocators, reconcile the +8.2% YTD and 73rd-percentile start with warehouse and ETF data: SSLN −25% YTD to 47.7 million oz and SLV −1.2% YTD to 426.4 million oz show divergent wrapper behavior that can inform vehicle choice without changing core bullion sizing. In all cases, let each number do exactly one job—performance percentile for momentum discipline, basis for routing, stocks for deliverability, and curve sign for timing—so the strategy remains anchored to facts, not forecasts.
Hugo Pascal’s observation about the AU9999 contract hitting a 10-week volume high underscores the increasing significance of physical gold trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This trend not only highlights robust domestic demand in China but also reflects broader shifts in the global gold market toward physical-backed assets.
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