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This week, gold captivated the markets with a mix of technical momentum, surging speculative interest, and political intrigue. In his latest analysis, Hugo Pascal, Chief Investment Officer at InProved, highlighted several noteworthy trends that shaped the week for the precious metal. From a surge in open interest on the COMEX to positioning around speculative call options ahead of a major political event, gold’s story this week is as dynamic as the market itself.
Open interest on the COMEX soared to a 9-week high, reaching 552,723 contracts, equivalent to 55.2 million ounces of gold. This represents a remarkable 10.7% increase week-to-date, reflecting growing participation in the gold futures market.
Why does this matter? Rising open interest often signals heightened activity and interest in a market, with traders entering new positions rather than simply closing existing ones. Pascal points out that this uptick in open interest underscores increased speculative appetite, likely driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and anticipation of future price moves.
Gold prices climbed to a 5-week high, with the February 2025 contract (Feb ’25) settling at $2,750.8/oz. Pascal notes that this rally is backed by a mix of safe-haven demand and technical momentum.
Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty—ranging from inflation concerns to a weaker dollar—has provided a favorable backdrop for gold. The metal’s recent performance signals resilience, with traders seemingly positioning for further upside as it approaches key resistance levels.
Adding an intriguing twist to this week’s narrative, Pascal highlights speculative activity in gold call options. Traders are positioning around strike prices of $2,925 and $2,950, with these options set to expire in just 11 days—coinciding with the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States.
Pascal aptly refers to these trades as “lottery tickets.” With profit probabilities below 1%, these options represent high-risk bets that rely on significant price movement in an extremely short timeframe. Such speculative positioning suggests that traders are factoring in the potential for heightened market volatility around this high-profile political event.
This week’s gold activity tells a compelling story of a market preparing for potential shifts:
1. Growing Participation: The surge in open interest indicates a broadening base of market participants, both speculative and hedging-oriented, seeking exposure to gold amid global uncertainty.
2. Bullish Momentum: Gold’s climb to a 5-week high reflects ongoing support from safe-haven demand and favorable technical conditions.
3. Speculative Bets: The call option activity around $2,925 and $2,950 strikes highlights the speculative nature of short-term trading, especially as traders look to capitalize on potential price swings tied to geopolitical and economic events.
As the market eyes the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, Pascal’s analysis suggests that volatility could remain elevated in the short term. The positioning in out-of-the-money call options, while highly speculative, underscores the market’s readiness for surprises. Meanwhile, the rise in open interest signals a renewed focus on gold as both a safe haven and a speculative opportunity.
For traders and investors, gold’s activity this week offers key takeaways about market sentiment, positioning, and the interplay of macroeconomic and political forces. As Pascal’s analytics consistently show, the precious metals market remains a fascinating barometer of global uncertainty and investor behavior.
Stay tuned for further insights from Hugo Pascal and the InProved team as we continue to track the dynamic world of gold and precious metals trading.
Hugo Pascal’s observation about the AU9999 contract hitting a 10-week volume high underscores the increasing significance of physical gold trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This trend not only highlights robust domestic demand in China but also reflects broader shifts in the global gold market toward physical-backed assets.
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